A lot of the housing across the Warren service area went up between 1938 and 1981, with the median build year around 1963. That means a large share of the doors and track hardware behind them are either original or are second-generation replacements sized to openings that pre-date modern track and roller standards. Older track brackets were fastened directly into jamb wood that has had six decades to shrink, split, or loosen around the lag screws - and a loose bracket is the single most common reason a door jumps track.
The cold makes it worse. This is a severe cold climate band, and steel track contracts in low temperatures just like the door panels do. A track that's already a few degrees out of plumb from a loose bracket will bind harder once the metal tightens up in January, and a binding door that someone keeps forcing with the opener is a door that comes off its rollers.
We see this pattern across the 22-plus named areas we cover, not just one subdivision - it's a housing-stock issue and a climate issue together, not a one-house problem.